POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Cameroon's Real Crisis Is Not Who Falls—But Who Truly Holds Power _Dr David Makongo

POLITICAL ANALYSIS:

Cameroon's Real Crisis Is Not Who Falls—But Who Truly Holds Power👁🤸‍♂️💪

The biggest news in Cameroon is almost never a new factory, a bold business idea, or a strategy that could create jobs and prosperity. It is almost always the alleged downfall of a powerful man. That alone says something troubling about the state of our politics.

The reports that President Paul Biya's Deputy Chief of Cabinet, Oswald Baboke has allegedly been summoned by the Special Criminal Court have therefore generated enormous public attention. If true, the development deserves careful analysis—not because it is unprecedented, but because it raises more questions than it answers.

Cameroon has already witnessed the imprisonment of former prime ministers, secretary-generals, ministers, and directors-general. Many observers describe it as the most extensive anti-corruption campaign—or political purge—in the country's modern history. Therefore, the possibility that another senior official could face investigation is, by itself, not shocking.

What makes this case different is its political context.

In the controversy surrounding the alleged fake vice-presidential appointment, the names of both Oswald Baboke and Chantal Biya have circulated in public discussion. If the state is genuinely prepared to investigate one, does it also intend to investigate everyone whose name has been associated with the affair? Or will accountability stop at a convenient political boundary?

These are legitimate political questions.

If those reports are accurate, do they signal that the balance of power inside the Presidency has changed? Has one faction gained ground over another? Or is this simply another episode in Cameroon's long tradition of elite power struggles?

No one can answer those questions with certainty.

What seems more evident is that the succession question remains unresolved. If there had been complete unity within the ruling establishment over the future, many believe the transition would already have been carefully managed. The continuing uncertainty itself suggests that important decisions remain contested.

It is also difficult to ignore the influence of powerful figures surrounding the Presidency. Many analysts regard Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh as one of the most influential actors within the state apparatus. Others point to the continued political influence of the First Lady. Whether one agrees with those assessments or not, it is hard to imagine any major political decision occurring without the consent—or at least the acquiescence—of the dominant centres of power around the Presidency.

But perhaps the greatest source of political power in Cameroon is neither an office nor an individual.

It is fear.

For decades, fear has discouraged citizens from believing that change is possible. Fear has often been more effective than force. As long as fear governs the public imagination, political continuity becomes easier than political transformation.

Ultimately, President Paul Biya remains in office not simply because he wishes to remain there, but because the political system surrounding him has remained intact and because no alternative political consensus has yet displaced it.

History teaches one important lesson: no political system lasts forever. Lasting change rarely comes from palace rumours or elite rivalries alone. It comes when institutions become stronger than personalities and when citizens overcome fear through peaceful civic participation, democratic engagement, and national unity.

That—not another palace intrigue—is the conversation Cameroon should be having.

Dr. David Makongo