Cameroon After Paul Biya: Who Could Succeed Him and Why the Nation Cannot Afford a Chaotic Transition?

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Cameroon After Paul Biya: Who Could Succeed Him and Why the Nation Cannot Afford a Chaotic Transition? (POLITICAL ANALYSIS BY DR. DAVID MAKONGO)

The Objective of this paper: Cameroon stands at one of the most important moments in its modern history. The objective should not be to predict conflict, nor to promote any individual, but to encourage preparation before uncertainty becomes crisis.

For more than four decades, President Paul Biya has stood at the center of Cameroon's political system. Whether one supports or opposes his leadership, one reality is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: the question is no longer whether succession will come, but how it will come.

No nation should be forced to discover its future only after a crisis has already begun. Responsible citizens, political leaders, civil society, the military, and the international community have a duty to think ahead—not to create panic, but to prevent it.

Cameroon today already faces multiple security, economic and political challenges. A turbulent succession could transform existing crises into a national catastrophe.

The Circumstances Setting the Stage

Several factors make any future transition unusually delicate:

- An aging presidency after decades in power.

- No publicly designated constitutional political successor with unquestionable authority.

- Multiple influential individuals and institutions with competing interests.

- Ongoing armed conflict in the North-West and South-West.

- Boko Haram and insurgent threats in the Far North.

- Armed banditry and kidnapping for ransom.

- Rising poverty, unemployment and economic hardship.

- Growing public frustration and demand for political change.

- Increasing influence of the diaspora in national political debates.

These realities create the possibility of a prolonged struggle for influence unless a clear, peaceful and constitutional transition is prepared in advance.

If any succession process were widely viewed as unconstitutional or lacking public legitimacy, Cameroon could witness large-scale civic mobilization.

Franck Biya versus Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh

This is the defining political contest people know but refuse to be publicly acknowledge. 

1. Franck Biya:

Among all the names frequently discussed, Franck Biya remains perhaps the most talked about. Many observers point to the fact that President Biya has publicly introduced him to influential international and domestic figures over the years, including President Emmanuel Macron, Chinese and Russian authorities, and traditional leaders such as the Lamido of Rey Bouba.

To many analysts, these appearances suggested an effort to familiarize powerful actors with his son.

2. Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh

The Secretary-General at the Presidency is widely regarded as one of the most influential officials in Cameroon. He is frequently perceived as coordinating many important presidential affairs and exercising significant administrative authority on behalf of the Head of State.

- Extensive experience inside the Presidency.

- Deep understanding of state administration.

- Strong relationships across government institutions.

- Considerable influence over the functioning of the executive.

- Seen by many as one of the most powerful figures within the current system.

To many analysts the question arise; can someone exercising enormous presidential authority successfully transfer that authority if circumstances suddenly change? Or would competing interests attempt to retain or redistribute that power?

Franck Biya versus Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh

This in my opinion will become the defining political contest.

While Franck Biya represents continuity through family, Ngoh Ngoh represents continuity through the state apparatus. One derives potential legitimacy from blood. The other derives influence from administration. One depends largely on presidential endorsement. The other depends largely on institutional relationships.

Neither possesses an automatic constitutional pathway.

Their success would therefore depend heavily upon: elite consensus, military neutrality, constitutional legitimacy, public acceptance, and the speed with which events unfold.

The Influence of First Lady Chantal Biya

No discussion would be complete without acknowledging the potential influence of First Lady Chantal Biya. Although she holds no constitutional executive authority, she has remained one of the country's most recognizable political figures for many years. Depending on future circumstances, she could potentially: encourage unity among competing factions; facilitate dialogue between rival political camps; support continuity around one preferred candidate; or help broker compromises designed to avoid national instability.

3. Could the Military Step In?

Across Africa, discussions about military intervention often emerge whenever prolonged uncertainty creates a dangerous power vacuum. Cameroon would not be immune from such speculation. Should institutions become paralyzed, competing factions refuse compromise, or widespread violence threaten national stability, some may argue that the armed forces should intervene temporarily to restore order, protect state institutions (Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger are all examples); prevent civil conflict; maintain territorial integrity; organize an orderly transition. However, history also teaches that every country is different. Military intervention is never simple. The armed forces themselves are not immune from internal divisions, ethnic and regional sensitivities; competing loyalties; institutional rivalries; and questions of legitimacy. Any intervention could therefore stabilize the country—or deepen existing divisions. It remains a possibility, but far from an easy solution.

4. The People

Perhaps the greatest unknown remains the Cameroonian people themselves. Many citizens express growing fatigue with poverty, unemployment, insecurity and political uncertainty. Some supporters of Issa Tchiroma Bakary believe he legitimately won the October 12 presidential election and continue to speak of reclaiming what they consider a stolen victory. Others strongly disagree. Whatever one's position, these competing narratives demonstrate that political legitimacy remains contested among sections of the population. If any succession process were widely viewed as unconstitutional or lacking public legitimacy, Cameroon could witness large-scale civic mobilization. Public mobilization therefore remains possible, but its consequences would be unpredictable.

History offers examples where sustained public protests reshaped political transitions, including Burkina Faso during the departure of Blaise Compaoré and Egypt during the fall of Hosni Mubarak. Yet history also teaches that every country is different. Cameroon's own security challenges make any mass confrontation particularly risky.

Public mobilization therefore remains possible, but its consequences would be unpredictable.

Why Cameroon Cannot Afford Another Crisis

Cameroon is already confronting: the conflict in the North-West and South-West,  insurgency in the Far North, armed banditry, kidnapping for ransom, human trafficking and child sexual exploitation, unemployment, poverty, corruption, slow economic growth. Adding a disputed succession to these existing pressures could rapidly overwhelm national institutions.

The Way Forward

Assuming these long days of silence are not translated into a sudden power vacuum, president Paul Biya still possesses a unique opportunity to help shape a peaceful transition before history overtakes events. Whatever decisions he considers appropriate, clarity, constitutional order and national dialogue remain essential to preserving stability. Cameroon gave him everything in this life. All Cameroon demands of him is to give back to the nation a peaceful transition than he took it. 

Transitions are most successful when they are anticipated—not improvised

Dr. David Makongo